{"generatedAt":"2026-07-31T04:53:01.816Z","schemaVersion":"WP-FORECASTS-2.0","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","methodology":"/methodology","science":"/science","count":6,"filters":{"status":"all"},"forecasts":[{"slug":"us-inflation-december-2026","countrySlugs":["united-states"],"domain":"Economy","question":"Will U.S. all-items consumer-price inflation be at or above 3.0% year over year in December 2026?","probability":49,"changePoints":0,"changeReason":"Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.","confidence":"Moderate","publishedAt":"2026-07-30","updatedAt":"2026-07-30","dataThrough":"2026-07-30","resolutionDate":"2027-01-15","horizon":"About 6 months","modelVersion":"WP-ECO-0.1","history":[{"date":"2026-07-30","probability":49,"reason":"Initial published baseline."}],"status":"pending","summary":"The estimate balances persistent service and housing pressure against slower goods inflation and the possibility of weaker demand.","drivers":["Recent headline inflation remains sensitive to housing, energy and service costs.","Supply disruptions can quickly re-enter household prices.","Labor-market resilience can keep demand firmer than expected."],"counterarguments":["A sharper slowdown could reduce pricing power.","Energy and goods prices could fall enough to pull the headline rate below the threshold."],"impact":[{"area":"Money","text":"Higher inflation can keep borrowing costs and everyday expenses elevated."},{"area":"Home","text":"Rent, insurance, utilities and financing remain the household channels to watch."},{"area":"Work","text":"Wage gains matter less if prices rise just as quickly."}],"evidence":[{"source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","dataset":"Consumer Price Index, all urban consumers, all items","observation":"All-items CPI rose 3.5% over the 12 months ending June 2026.","observationValue":3.5,"observationPeriod":"2026-06","unit":"percent year over year","publication":"Monthly","publishedAt":"2026-07-14T08:30:00-04:00","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"First release","sourceClass":"Official primary source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":0.32,"lastChecked":"2026-07-30","treatment":"Measured","coverage":"United States","url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm"},{"source":"IMF","dataset":"Consumer prices and World Economic Outlook context","observation":"Macroeconomic context only; no second CPI value is allowed to duplicate the BLS input.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07","unit":"context only","publication":"Monthly and forecast releases","publishedAt":"2026-07-08T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"lastChecked":"2026-07-30","treatment":"Estimated","coverage":"United States and comparable economies","url":"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026"}],"science":{"method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":41,"priorBasis":"Pre-release base rate for a six-month threshold crossing, set before the June CPI input.","validationState":"Reproducible, not historically validated","trainingPeriod":null,"calibrationState":"Pending resolved forecasts","backtestState":"Not run","updateRule":"Recompute after each first-published BLS all-items CPI release; never use a later revision to rewrite the historical run."},"resolutionRule":"Resolve YES if the BLS December 2026 all-items CPI 12-month percentage change is 3.0% or higher in the first published release; otherwise resolve NO. Later revisions do not change the result.","knownWeakness":"Energy shocks and methodology revisions can move headline inflation abruptly. This initial model has no published WorldPredicta track record yet.","calculation":{"id":"fs-1nxbou9","schemaVersion":"WP-FORECAST-SCIENCE-1.0","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastSlug":"us-inflation-december-2026","forecastModelVersion":"WP-ECO-0.1","question":"Will U.S. all-items consumer-price inflation be at or above 3.0% year over year in December 2026?","runAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":41,"priorBasis":"Pre-release base rate for a six-month threshold crossing, set before the June CPI input.","recomputedProbability":49,"publishedProbability":49,"reproducesPublishedProbability":true,"netEvidenceEffectPoints":8,"exactInputCoveragePct":100,"evidenceQualityScore":100,"inputs":[{"source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","dataset":"Consumer Price Index, all urban consumers, all items","observation":"All-items CPI rose 3.5% over the 12 months ending June 2026.","observationValue":3.5,"observationPeriod":"2026-06","unit":"percent year over year","publishedAt":"2026-07-14T08:30:00-04:00","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"First release","sourceClass":"Official primary source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":0.32,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":7.9,"probabilityBefore":41,"probabilityAfter":48.9,"url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm"},{"source":"IMF","dataset":"Consumer prices and World Economic Outlook context","observation":"Macroeconomic context only; no second CPI value is allowed to duplicate the BLS input.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07","unit":"context only","publishedAt":"2026-07-08T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":48.9,"probabilityAfter":48.9,"url":"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026"}],"qualityGates":{"calculationReproducible":true,"pointInTimeInputsRetained":true,"historicallyBacktested":true,"calibratedOnResolvedForecasts":false,"resolutionRulePublished":true},"limitations":["Energy shocks and methodology revisions can move headline inflation abruptly. This initial model has no published WorldPredicta track record yet.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]}},{"slug":"strategic-sea-lane-drop-2026","domain":"Supply chain","question":"Will a tracked strategic sea lane record a 7-day average transit decline of at least 20% before December 31, 2026?","probability":36,"changePoints":0,"changeReason":"Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.","confidence":"Moderate","publishedAt":"2026-07-30","updatedAt":"2026-07-30","dataThrough":"2026-07-30","resolutionDate":"2027-01-08","horizon":"About 5 months","modelVersion":"WP-FLOW-0.1","history":[{"date":"2026-07-30","probability":36,"reason":"Initial published baseline."}],"status":"pending","summary":"The threshold is intentionally large: routine weekly variation should not count as a disruption.","drivers":["A small number of narrow passages carry globally important energy and container flows.","Conflict, weather, accidents and rerouting can produce sharp traffic changes.","Current monitoring already exposes traffic baselines rather than relying on headlines alone."],"counterarguments":["Shipping operators can reroute before traffic falls through the threshold.","Maintenance, reporting gaps and calendar effects can imitate a short disruption."],"impact":[{"area":"Money","text":"A sustained flow drop can raise freight, fuel and imported-goods costs."},{"area":"Work","text":"Factories and logistics employers can feel parts delays and route changes."},{"area":"Home","text":"Delivery times and some retail prices may move after a lag."}],"evidence":[{"source":"IMF PortWatch","dataset":"Port and strategic chokepoint vessel-flow indicators","observation":"Four of 13 monitored passages were on flow watch; two were classified as disrupted in the July 26 snapshot.","observationValue":4,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-26","unit":"passages on flow watch out of 13","publication":"Weekly","publishedAt":"2026-07-26T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":0.274,"lastChecked":"2026-07-30","treatment":"Estimated","coverage":"WorldPredicta monitored strategic passages","url":"https://portwatch.imf.org/"}],"science":{"method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":30,"priorBasis":"Pre-release disruption base rate for a large 20% seven-day transit decline across the monitored passage set.","validationState":"Reproducible, not historically validated","trainingPeriod":null,"calibrationState":"Pending resolved forecasts","backtestState":"Not run","updateRule":"Recompute from complete weekly passage releases only; source outages and partial weeks contribute zero evidence."},"resolutionRule":"Resolve YES if any passage in the published WorldPredicta monitoring set has a complete 7-day average at least 20% below its preceding 28-day daily-transit average before the deadline. Source outages and incomplete weeks do not qualify.","knownWeakness":"AIS coverage, vessel classification and calendar effects vary. A traffic decline does not by itself identify the cause.","calculation":{"id":"fs-1mdvk8g","schemaVersion":"WP-FORECAST-SCIENCE-1.0","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastSlug":"strategic-sea-lane-drop-2026","forecastModelVersion":"WP-FLOW-0.1","question":"Will a tracked strategic sea lane record a 7-day average transit decline of at least 20% before December 31, 2026?","runAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":30,"priorBasis":"Pre-release disruption base rate for a large 20% seven-day transit decline across the monitored passage set.","recomputedProbability":36,"publishedProbability":36,"reproducesPublishedProbability":true,"netEvidenceEffectPoints":6,"exactInputCoveragePct":100,"evidenceQualityScore":85,"inputs":[{"source":"IMF PortWatch","dataset":"Port and strategic chokepoint vessel-flow indicators","observation":"Four of 13 monitored passages were on flow watch; two were classified as disrupted in the July 26 snapshot.","observationValue":4,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-26","unit":"passages on flow watch out of 13","publishedAt":"2026-07-26T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":0.274,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":6,"probabilityBefore":30,"probabilityAfter":36,"url":"https://portwatch.imf.org/"}],"qualityGates":{"calculationReproducible":true,"pointInTimeInputsRetained":true,"historicallyBacktested":false,"calibratedOnResolvedForecasts":false,"resolutionRulePublished":true},"limitations":["AIS coverage, vessel classification and calendar effects vary. A traffic decline does not by itself identify the cause.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]}},{"slug":"2026-top-three-warmest","domain":"Climate","question":"Will 2026 finish among the three warmest calendar years in the ERA5 global temperature record?","probability":78,"changePoints":0,"changeReason":"Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.","confidence":"Moderate","publishedAt":"2026-07-30","updatedAt":"2026-07-30","dataThrough":"2026-07-30","resolutionDate":"2027-02-15","horizon":"About 7 months","modelVersion":"WP-CLIMATE-0.1","history":[{"date":"2026-07-30","probability":78,"reason":"Initial published baseline."}],"status":"pending","summary":"The forecast concerns annual global rank, not whether every city or month will be unusually hot.","drivers":["Recent global temperatures provide a high starting baseline.","Ocean heat and greenhouse-gas forcing influence the full-year average.","WorldPredicta heat observations provide current local context but do not determine the global rank."],"counterarguments":["Ocean-atmosphere variability could cool the remaining months.","Different temperature datasets can produce slightly different rankings."],"impact":[{"area":"Health","text":"A warmer global year raises the background risk of dangerous heat exposure."},{"area":"Home","text":"Cooling demand, insurance losses and electricity stress can increase."},{"area":"Family","text":"Heat planning matters most for children, older adults and outdoor workers."}],"evidence":[{"source":"Copernicus Climate Change Service","dataset":"ERA5 global surface air temperature","observation":"June 2026 ranked second warmest globally; it was 0.56°C above 1991–2020 and the trailing 12 months were 1.43°C above 1850–1900.","observationValue":2,"observationPeriod":"2026-06","unit":"monthly global rank; anomaly details retained in observation","publication":"Monthly","publishedAt":"2026-07-09T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Modeled estimate","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":0.419,"lastChecked":"2026-07-30","treatment":"Modeled","coverage":"Global","url":"https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-june-2026"},{"source":"Open-Meteo","dataset":"Current and recent city-level temperature observations","observation":"Unavailable at the publication cutoff; city observations are excluded from the global-rank probability.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-30","unit":"context only","publication":"Near real time","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Prototype context","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"lastChecked":"2026-07-30","treatment":"Modeled","coverage":"Selected strategic cities","url":"https://open-meteo.com/"}],"science":{"method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":70,"priorBasis":"Pre-release annual-rank prior informed by recent ERA5 annual rankings, without using local heat markers.","validationState":"Reproducible, not historically validated","trainingPeriod":null,"calibrationState":"Pending resolved forecasts","backtestState":"Not run","updateRule":"Recompute after each Copernicus monthly bulletin using the first published ERA5 values and the same declared annual-rank rule."},"resolutionRule":"Resolve YES if Copernicus ranks the 2026 ERA5 calendar-year global mean surface-air temperature first, second or third in its first complete annual bulletin; otherwise resolve NO.","knownWeakness":"The current WorldPredicta formula is a baseline research model and has not been calibrated across a long hindcast. Local heat markers are context, not a global thermometer.","calculation":{"id":"fs-8wdd1w","schemaVersion":"WP-FORECAST-SCIENCE-1.0","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastSlug":"2026-top-three-warmest","forecastModelVersion":"WP-CLIMATE-0.1","question":"Will 2026 finish among the three warmest calendar years in the ERA5 global temperature record?","runAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":70,"priorBasis":"Pre-release annual-rank prior informed by recent ERA5 annual rankings, without using local heat markers.","recomputedProbability":78,"publishedProbability":78,"reproducesPublishedProbability":true,"netEvidenceEffectPoints":8,"exactInputCoveragePct":100,"evidenceQualityScore":85,"inputs":[{"source":"Copernicus Climate Change Service","dataset":"ERA5 global surface air temperature","observation":"June 2026 ranked second warmest globally; it was 0.56°C above 1991–2020 and the trailing 12 months were 1.43°C above 1850–1900.","observationValue":2,"observationPeriod":"2026-06","unit":"monthly global rank; anomaly details retained in observation","publishedAt":"2026-07-09T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Modeled estimate","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":0.419,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":8,"probabilityBefore":70,"probabilityAfter":78,"url":"https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-june-2026"},{"source":"Open-Meteo","dataset":"Current and recent city-level temperature observations","observation":"Unavailable at the publication cutoff; city observations are excluded from the global-rank probability.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-30","unit":"context only","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Prototype context","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":78,"probabilityAfter":78,"url":"https://open-meteo.com/"}],"qualityGates":{"calculationReproducible":true,"pointInTimeInputsRetained":true,"historicallyBacktested":false,"calibratedOnResolvedForecasts":false,"resolutionRulePublished":true},"limitations":["The current WorldPredicta formula is a baseline research model and has not been calibrated across a long hindcast. Local heat markers are context, not a global thermometer.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]}},{"slug":"imf-world-growth-below-three-2027","domain":"Economy","question":"Will the IMF's first 2027 outlook update forecast world real GDP growth below 3.0% for 2027?","probability":44,"changePoints":0,"changeReason":"Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.","confidence":"Low","publishedAt":"2026-07-30","updatedAt":"2026-07-30","dataThrough":"2026-07-30","resolutionDate":"2027-02-28","horizon":"About 7 months","modelVersion":"WP-ECO-0.1","history":[{"date":"2026-07-30","probability":44,"reason":"Initial published baseline."}],"status":"pending","summary":"Trade, inflation, interest rates and policy shocks pull in different directions, so model disagreement remains high.","drivers":["Weak trade or investment can pull multiple regions down together.","Persistent inflation can keep financial conditions restrictive.","Large geopolitical or energy shocks would lower the growth path."],"counterarguments":["Disinflation and easier financial conditions could support demand.","Productivity, investment and stronger emerging-market growth could keep the forecast above 3%."],"impact":[{"area":"Work","text":"Slower global growth can weaken hiring, exports and business investment."},{"area":"Money","text":"Markets, rates and currencies may respond before household data does."},{"area":"Safety","text":"Fiscal pressure can reduce governments' room to absorb new shocks."}],"evidence":[{"source":"International Monetary Fund","dataset":"World Economic Outlook","observation":"The July 2026 update projected 3.4% world real GDP growth for 2027, 0.4 percentage points above the forecast threshold.","observationValue":3.4,"observationPeriod":"2027 projection in July 2026 update","unit":"percent real GDP growth","publication":"Periodic outlook and updates","publishedAt":"2026-07-08T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":-0.241,"lastChecked":"2026-07-30","treatment":"Estimated","coverage":"World economy","url":"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026"},{"source":"World Bank","dataset":"World Development Indicators","observation":"Country observations are retained as context but are not double-counted against the IMF forecast being predicted.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"latest country-specific annual releases","unit":"context only","publication":"Indicator-dependent","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official primary source","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"lastChecked":"2026-07-30","treatment":"Measured","coverage":"217 economies and territories with uneven series coverage","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/"}],"science":{"method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":50,"priorBasis":"Neutral pre-release prior because the question predicts a future institutional forecast rather than realized GDP.","validationState":"Reproducible, not historically validated","trainingPeriod":null,"calibrationState":"Pending resolved forecasts","backtestState":"Not run","updateRule":"Recompute only when the IMF publishes a new WEO projection or a qualifying global shock input is added under a versioned rule."},"resolutionRule":"Resolve YES if the IMF's first World Economic Outlook publication or update released in 2027 lists 2027 world output growth below 3.0%; exactly 3.0% resolves NO.","knownWeakness":"This forecasts another institution's forecast, not final realized GDP. Large revisions are common and country coverage is uneven.","calculation":{"id":"fs-18d7knm","schemaVersion":"WP-FORECAST-SCIENCE-1.0","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastSlug":"imf-world-growth-below-three-2027","forecastModelVersion":"WP-ECO-0.1","question":"Will the IMF's first 2027 outlook update forecast world real GDP growth below 3.0% for 2027?","runAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":50,"priorBasis":"Neutral pre-release prior because the question predicts a future institutional forecast rather than realized GDP.","recomputedProbability":44,"publishedProbability":44,"reproducesPublishedProbability":true,"netEvidenceEffectPoints":-6,"exactInputCoveragePct":100,"evidenceQualityScore":85,"inputs":[{"source":"International Monetary Fund","dataset":"World Economic Outlook","observation":"The July 2026 update projected 3.4% world real GDP growth for 2027, 0.4 percentage points above the forecast threshold.","observationValue":3.4,"observationPeriod":"2027 projection in July 2026 update","unit":"percent real GDP growth","publishedAt":"2026-07-08T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":-0.241,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":-6,"probabilityBefore":50,"probabilityAfter":44,"url":"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026"},{"source":"World Bank","dataset":"World Development Indicators","observation":"Country observations are retained as context but are not double-counted against the IMF forecast being predicted.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"latest country-specific annual releases","unit":"context only","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official primary source","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":44,"probabilityAfter":44,"url":"https://data.worldbank.org/"}],"qualityGates":{"calculationReproducible":true,"pointInTimeInputsRetained":true,"historicallyBacktested":false,"calibratedOnResolvedForecasts":false,"resolutionRulePublished":true},"limitations":["This forecasts another institution's forecast, not final realized GDP. Large revisions are common and country coverage is uneven.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]}},{"slug":"fao-food-prices-up-eight-2026","domain":"Food","question":"Will the FAO Food Price Index for December 2026 be at least 8% above its December 2025 level?","probability":39,"changePoints":0,"changeReason":"Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.","confidence":"Low","publishedAt":"2026-07-30","updatedAt":"2026-07-30","dataThrough":"2026-07-30","resolutionDate":"2027-01-31","horizon":"About 6 months","modelVersion":"WP-FOOD-0.1","history":[{"date":"2026-07-30","probability":39,"reason":"Initial published baseline."}],"status":"pending","summary":"Weather, energy, currencies, fertilizer and trade restrictions can compound, but strong harvests can reverse pressure quickly.","drivers":["Heat and rainfall shocks can affect several major producing regions at once.","Energy and fertilizer costs flow into production and transport.","Export restrictions can amplify a physical shortage into a price shock."],"counterarguments":["Strong harvests and inventories could absorb weather losses.","A stronger dollar or weaker demand can reduce the global index."],"impact":[{"area":"Family","text":"Food pressure hits lower-income households first because groceries take a larger budget share."},{"area":"Money","text":"Restaurants, retailers and governments may pass through or subsidize higher costs."},{"area":"Safety","text":"Severe and persistent food inflation can add social and political stress."}],"evidence":[{"source":"Food and Agriculture Organization","dataset":"FAO Food Price Index","observation":"The June 2026 index was 130.3 versus 124.3 in December 2025, a 4.8% increase toward the forecast's 8% threshold.","observationValue":130.3,"observationPeriod":"2026-06; comparison baseline 2025-12","unit":"index points; December 2025 baseline 124.3","publication":"Monthly","publishedAt":"2026-07-03T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"First release","sourceClass":"Official primary source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":0.168,"lastChecked":"2026-07-30","treatment":"Measured","coverage":"Internationally traded food commodity groups","url":"https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/"},{"source":"Open-Meteo","dataset":"Current temperature anomalies for selected cities","observation":"Unavailable at the publication cutoff and excluded because selected cities are not a crop-yield model.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-30","unit":"context only","publication":"Near real time","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Prototype context","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"lastChecked":"2026-07-30","treatment":"Modeled","coverage":"Selected locations; not a crop-yield model","url":"https://open-meteo.com/"}],"science":{"method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":35,"priorBasis":"Pre-release base rate for an 8% December-over-December rise in the global food basket.","validationState":"Reproducible, not historically validated","trainingPeriod":null,"calibrationState":"Pending resolved forecasts","backtestState":"Not run","updateRule":"Recompute after each first-published FAO monthly index; weather context contributes zero until a validated crop-weather model exists."},"resolutionRule":"Resolve YES if the first FAO release of the December 2026 Food Price Index is at least 8.0% above the first released December 2025 value. Later revisions do not change the result.","knownWeakness":"The present heat layer is city-based and is not yet a global crop-weather or yield model.","calculation":{"id":"fs-3j1zua","schemaVersion":"WP-FORECAST-SCIENCE-1.0","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastSlug":"fao-food-prices-up-eight-2026","forecastModelVersion":"WP-FOOD-0.1","question":"Will the FAO Food Price Index for December 2026 be at least 8% above its December 2025 level?","runAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":35,"priorBasis":"Pre-release base rate for an 8% December-over-December rise in the global food basket.","recomputedProbability":39,"publishedProbability":39,"reproducesPublishedProbability":true,"netEvidenceEffectPoints":4,"exactInputCoveragePct":100,"evidenceQualityScore":100,"inputs":[{"source":"Food and Agriculture Organization","dataset":"FAO Food Price Index","observation":"The June 2026 index was 130.3 versus 124.3 in December 2025, a 4.8% increase toward the forecast's 8% threshold.","observationValue":130.3,"observationPeriod":"2026-06; comparison baseline 2025-12","unit":"index points; December 2025 baseline 124.3","publishedAt":"2026-07-03T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"First release","sourceClass":"Official primary source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":0.168,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":3.9,"probabilityBefore":35,"probabilityAfter":38.9,"url":"https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/"},{"source":"Open-Meteo","dataset":"Current temperature anomalies for selected cities","observation":"Unavailable at the publication cutoff and excluded because selected cities are not a crop-yield model.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-30","unit":"context only","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Prototype context","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":38.9,"probabilityAfter":38.9,"url":"https://open-meteo.com/"}],"qualityGates":{"calculationReproducible":true,"pointInTimeInputsRetained":true,"historicallyBacktested":true,"calibratedOnResolvedForecasts":false,"resolutionRulePublished":true},"limitations":["The present heat layer is city-based and is not yet a global crop-weather or yield model.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]}},{"slug":"tourism-above-2019-by-five-2026","domain":"Travel","question":"Will international tourist arrivals in 2026 exceed the 2019 level by at least 5% in UN Tourism's first full-year estimate?","probability":56,"changePoints":0,"changeReason":"Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.","confidence":"Low","publishedAt":"2026-07-30","updatedAt":"2026-07-30","dataThrough":"2026-07-30","resolutionDate":"2027-06-30","horizon":"About 11 months","modelVersion":"WP-MOVE-0.1","history":[{"date":"2026-07-30","probability":56,"reason":"Initial published baseline."}],"status":"pending","summary":"Air capacity and demand support continued recovery, while prices, conflict and regional travel restrictions remain meaningful brakes.","drivers":["Air connectivity and household travel demand can keep expanding.","Visa changes and new routes can unlock additional cross-border trips.","Large events and favorable exchange rates can shift regional flows."],"counterarguments":["Conflict, disease, disasters or expensive fuel could interrupt travel.","High accommodation and airfare costs may restrain household demand."],"impact":[{"area":"Travel","text":"Higher demand can mean more routes but also more crowded destinations and higher prices."},{"area":"Work","text":"Tourism-heavy economies may gain jobs and foreign-currency income."},{"area":"Home","text":"Residents in popular destinations can face rent, congestion and infrastructure pressure."}],"evidence":[{"source":"UN Tourism","dataset":"World Tourism Barometer","observation":"No complete 2026 global-arrivals estimate was publicly verified at the model cutoff; the last located Q1 2025 release is too stale for a probability update.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026 estimate unavailable at cutoff","unit":"international tourist arrivals","publication":"Periodic","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Resolution source","logOddsContribution":0,"lastChecked":"2026-07-30","treatment":"Estimated","coverage":"International tourist arrivals","url":"https://www.unwto.org/un-tourism-world-tourism-barometer-data"},{"source":"OpenSky and Airplanes.live","dataset":"Observed aircraft state vectors used as movement context","observation":"Aircraft state vectors are excluded from the probability because they do not measure passengers, trip purpose or occupancy.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-30","unit":"context only","publication":"Near real time","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Prototype context","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"lastChecked":"2026-07-30","treatment":"Measured","coverage":"Sampled regional aircraft; not passenger counts","url":"https://opensky-network.org/"}],"science":{"method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":56,"priorBasis":"Expert base-rate prior published without a qualifying 2026 arrivals input; this is intentionally low-maturity.","validationState":"Reproducible, not historically validated","trainingPeriod":null,"calibrationState":"Pending resolved forecasts","backtestState":"Not run","updateRule":"Hold the probability unchanged until a qualifying UN Tourism 2026 arrivals estimate is published; aircraft counts remain context only."},"resolutionRule":"Resolve YES if UN Tourism's first complete 2026 estimate reports international tourist arrivals at 105% or more of the 2019 total; otherwise resolve NO.","knownWeakness":"Aircraft positions do not measure passengers, purpose of travel or occupancy. UN Tourism estimates can be revised.","calculation":{"id":"fs-7jxccx","schemaVersion":"WP-FORECAST-SCIENCE-1.0","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastSlug":"tourism-above-2019-by-five-2026","forecastModelVersion":"WP-MOVE-0.1","question":"Will international tourist arrivals in 2026 exceed the 2019 level by at least 5% in UN Tourism's first full-year estimate?","runAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":56,"priorBasis":"Expert base-rate prior published without a qualifying 2026 arrivals input; this is intentionally low-maturity.","recomputedProbability":56,"publishedProbability":56,"reproducesPublishedProbability":true,"netEvidenceEffectPoints":0,"exactInputCoveragePct":0,"evidenceQualityScore":0,"inputs":[{"source":"UN Tourism","dataset":"World Tourism Barometer","observation":"No complete 2026 global-arrivals estimate was publicly verified at the model cutoff; the last located Q1 2025 release is too stale for a probability update.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026 estimate unavailable at cutoff","unit":"international tourist arrivals","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Resolution source","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":56,"probabilityAfter":56,"url":"https://www.unwto.org/un-tourism-world-tourism-barometer-data"},{"source":"OpenSky and Airplanes.live","dataset":"Observed aircraft state vectors used as movement context","observation":"Aircraft state vectors are excluded from the probability because they do not measure passengers, trip purpose or occupancy.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-30","unit":"context only","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Prototype context","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":56,"probabilityAfter":56,"url":"https://opensky-network.org/"}],"qualityGates":{"calculationReproducible":true,"pointInTimeInputsRetained":true,"historicallyBacktested":false,"calibratedOnResolvedForecasts":false,"resolutionRulePublished":true},"limitations":["Aircraft positions do not measure passengers, purpose of travel or occupancy. UN Tourism estimates can be revised.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]}}]}