WORLD PREDICTA
THE PREDICTION LEDGER

Every forecast leaves a receipt.

Exact questions, probabilities, deadlines, source records and resolution rules. Incorrect forecasts stay public.

6ACTIVE0RESOLVED—BRIER SCORE0.2SCIENCE GENERATION
ACTIVE QUESTIONS

What WorldPredicta currently believes.

This is the initial research cohort. Confidence describes evidence and model maturity; it is not the event probability.

ECONOMYCONFIDENCE · MODERATE

Will U.S. all-items consumer-price inflation be at or above 3.0% year over year in December 2026?

49%ESTIMATED CHANCE

The estimate balances persistent service and housing pressure against slower goods inflation and the possibility of weaker demand.

Published
Jul 30, 2026
Updated
Jul 30, 2026
Data through
Jul 30, 2026
Resolution date
Jan 15, 2027
Movement
Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.
Model
WP-ECO-0.1
REPRODUCIBLE CALCULATION · WP-SCIENCE-0.2
PRIOR41%
+
NET EVIDENCE+8 pts
=
RECOMPUTED49%
MATH MATCHES

100% exact input coverage · evidence quality 100/100 · expert weights are declared but not historically validated.

Open every input and weight →
MAIN DRIVERS
  1. Recent headline inflation remains sensitive to housing, energy and service costs.
  2. Supply disruptions can quickly re-enter household prices.
  3. Labor-market resilience can keep demand firmer than expected.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
  1. A sharper slowdown could reduce pricing power.
  2. Energy and goods prices could fall enough to pull the headline rate below the threshold.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Money

Higher inflation can keep borrowing costs and everyday expenses elevated.

Home

Rent, insurance, utilities and financing remain the household channels to watch.

Work

Wage gains matter less if prices rise just as quickly.

PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE

Resolve YES if the BLS December 2026 all-items CPI 12-month percentage change is 3.0% or higher in the first published release; otherwise resolve NO. Later revisions do not change the result.

Open source receipts
Open model card
Purpose
Estimate the probability of this exact public question before its deadline.
Calculation
Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation. Prior 41% plus declared evidence contributions.
Training period
No fitted training period is claimed.
Historical performance
Not available until forecasts resolve. WorldPredicta will not backfill a fake track record.
Calibration method
Pending a sufficient set of resolved forecasts; probabilities are grouped and scored publicly.
Known weakness
Energy shocks and methodology revisions can move headline inflation abruptly. This initial model has no published WorldPredicta track record yet.
Current version
WP-ECO-0.1
SUPPLY CHAINCONFIDENCE · MODERATE

Will a tracked strategic sea lane record a 7-day average transit decline of at least 20% before December 31, 2026?

36%ESTIMATED CHANCE

The threshold is intentionally large: routine weekly variation should not count as a disruption.

Published
Jul 30, 2026
Updated
Jul 30, 2026
Data through
Jul 30, 2026
Resolution date
Jan 8, 2027
Movement
Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.
Model
WP-FLOW-0.1
REPRODUCIBLE CALCULATION · WP-SCIENCE-0.2
PRIOR30%
+
NET EVIDENCE+6 pts
=
RECOMPUTED36%
MATH MATCHES

100% exact input coverage · evidence quality 85/100 · expert weights are declared but not historically validated.

Open every input and weight →
MAIN DRIVERS
  1. A small number of narrow passages carry globally important energy and container flows.
  2. Conflict, weather, accidents and rerouting can produce sharp traffic changes.
  3. Current monitoring already exposes traffic baselines rather than relying on headlines alone.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
  1. Shipping operators can reroute before traffic falls through the threshold.
  2. Maintenance, reporting gaps and calendar effects can imitate a short disruption.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Money

A sustained flow drop can raise freight, fuel and imported-goods costs.

Work

Factories and logistics employers can feel parts delays and route changes.

Home

Delivery times and some retail prices may move after a lag.

PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE

Resolve YES if any passage in the published WorldPredicta monitoring set has a complete 7-day average at least 20% below its preceding 28-day daily-transit average before the deadline. Source outages and incomplete weeks do not qualify.

Open source receipts
Open model card
Purpose
Estimate the probability of this exact public question before its deadline.
Calculation
Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation. Prior 30% plus declared evidence contributions.
Training period
No fitted training period is claimed.
Historical performance
Not available until forecasts resolve. WorldPredicta will not backfill a fake track record.
Calibration method
Pending a sufficient set of resolved forecasts; probabilities are grouped and scored publicly.
Known weakness
AIS coverage, vessel classification and calendar effects vary. A traffic decline does not by itself identify the cause.
Current version
WP-FLOW-0.1
CLIMATECONFIDENCE · MODERATE

Will 2026 finish among the three warmest calendar years in the ERA5 global temperature record?

78%ESTIMATED CHANCE

The forecast concerns annual global rank, not whether every city or month will be unusually hot.

Published
Jul 30, 2026
Updated
Jul 30, 2026
Data through
Jul 30, 2026
Resolution date
Feb 15, 2027
Movement
Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.
Model
WP-CLIMATE-0.1
REPRODUCIBLE CALCULATION · WP-SCIENCE-0.2
PRIOR70%
+
NET EVIDENCE+8 pts
=
RECOMPUTED78%
MATH MATCHES

100% exact input coverage · evidence quality 85/100 · expert weights are declared but not historically validated.

Open every input and weight →
MAIN DRIVERS
  1. Recent global temperatures provide a high starting baseline.
  2. Ocean heat and greenhouse-gas forcing influence the full-year average.
  3. WorldPredicta heat observations provide current local context but do not determine the global rank.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
  1. Ocean-atmosphere variability could cool the remaining months.
  2. Different temperature datasets can produce slightly different rankings.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Health

A warmer global year raises the background risk of dangerous heat exposure.

Home

Cooling demand, insurance losses and electricity stress can increase.

Family

Heat planning matters most for children, older adults and outdoor workers.

PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE

Resolve YES if Copernicus ranks the 2026 ERA5 calendar-year global mean surface-air temperature first, second or third in its first complete annual bulletin; otherwise resolve NO.

Open source receipts
Copernicus Climate Change ServiceMODELED

ERA5 global surface air temperature

Observation
June 2026 ranked second warmest globally; it was 0.56°C above 1991–2020 and the trailing 12 months were 1.43°C above 1850–1900.
Exact value
2 monthly global rank; anomaly details retained in observation
Period
2026-06
Published
7/9/2026
Revision
Modeled estimate
Model role
Probability input
Publication
Monthly
Last checked
Jul 30, 2026
Coverage
Global
Open-MeteoMODELED

Current and recent city-level temperature observations

Observation
Unavailable at the publication cutoff; city observations are excluded from the global-rank probability.
Exact value
Excluded from model
Period
2026-07-30
Published
Unavailable
Revision
Unavailable
Model role
Context only
Publication
Near real time
Last checked
Jul 30, 2026
Coverage
Selected strategic cities
Open model card
Purpose
Estimate the probability of this exact public question before its deadline.
Calculation
Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation. Prior 70% plus declared evidence contributions.
Training period
No fitted training period is claimed.
Historical performance
Not available until forecasts resolve. WorldPredicta will not backfill a fake track record.
Calibration method
Pending a sufficient set of resolved forecasts; probabilities are grouped and scored publicly.
Known weakness
The current WorldPredicta formula is a baseline research model and has not been calibrated across a long hindcast. Local heat markers are context, not a global thermometer.
Current version
WP-CLIMATE-0.1
ECONOMYCONFIDENCE · LOW

Will the IMF's first 2027 outlook update forecast world real GDP growth below 3.0% for 2027?

44%ESTIMATED CHANCE

Trade, inflation, interest rates and policy shocks pull in different directions, so model disagreement remains high.

Published
Jul 30, 2026
Updated
Jul 30, 2026
Data through
Jul 30, 2026
Resolution date
Feb 28, 2027
Movement
Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.
Model
WP-ECO-0.1
REPRODUCIBLE CALCULATION · WP-SCIENCE-0.2
PRIOR50%
+
NET EVIDENCE-6 pts
=
RECOMPUTED44%
MATH MATCHES

100% exact input coverage · evidence quality 85/100 · expert weights are declared but not historically validated.

Open every input and weight →
MAIN DRIVERS
  1. Weak trade or investment can pull multiple regions down together.
  2. Persistent inflation can keep financial conditions restrictive.
  3. Large geopolitical or energy shocks would lower the growth path.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
  1. Disinflation and easier financial conditions could support demand.
  2. Productivity, investment and stronger emerging-market growth could keep the forecast above 3%.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Work

Slower global growth can weaken hiring, exports and business investment.

Money

Markets, rates and currencies may respond before household data does.

Safety

Fiscal pressure can reduce governments' room to absorb new shocks.

PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE

Resolve YES if the IMF's first World Economic Outlook publication or update released in 2027 lists 2027 world output growth below 3.0%; exactly 3.0% resolves NO.

Open source receipts
International Monetary FundESTIMATED

World Economic Outlook

Observation
The July 2026 update projected 3.4% world real GDP growth for 2027, 0.4 percentage points above the forecast threshold.
Exact value
3.4 percent real GDP growth
Period
2027 projection in July 2026 update
Published
7/8/2026
Revision
Current release
Model role
Probability input
Publication
Periodic outlook and updates
Last checked
Jul 30, 2026
Coverage
World economy
World BankMEASURED

World Development Indicators

Observation
Country observations are retained as context but are not double-counted against the IMF forecast being predicted.
Exact value
Excluded from model
Period
latest country-specific annual releases
Published
Unavailable
Revision
Current release
Model role
Context only
Publication
Indicator-dependent
Last checked
Jul 30, 2026
Coverage
217 economies and territories with uneven series coverage
Open model card
Purpose
Estimate the probability of this exact public question before its deadline.
Calculation
Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation. Prior 50% plus declared evidence contributions.
Training period
No fitted training period is claimed.
Historical performance
Not available until forecasts resolve. WorldPredicta will not backfill a fake track record.
Calibration method
Pending a sufficient set of resolved forecasts; probabilities are grouped and scored publicly.
Known weakness
This forecasts another institution's forecast, not final realized GDP. Large revisions are common and country coverage is uneven.
Current version
WP-ECO-0.1
FOODCONFIDENCE · LOW

Will the FAO Food Price Index for December 2026 be at least 8% above its December 2025 level?

39%ESTIMATED CHANCE

Weather, energy, currencies, fertilizer and trade restrictions can compound, but strong harvests can reverse pressure quickly.

Published
Jul 30, 2026
Updated
Jul 30, 2026
Data through
Jul 30, 2026
Resolution date
Jan 31, 2027
Movement
Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.
Model
WP-FOOD-0.1
REPRODUCIBLE CALCULATION · WP-SCIENCE-0.2
PRIOR35%
+
NET EVIDENCE+4 pts
=
RECOMPUTED39%
MATH MATCHES

100% exact input coverage · evidence quality 100/100 · expert weights are declared but not historically validated.

Open every input and weight →
MAIN DRIVERS
  1. Heat and rainfall shocks can affect several major producing regions at once.
  2. Energy and fertilizer costs flow into production and transport.
  3. Export restrictions can amplify a physical shortage into a price shock.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
  1. Strong harvests and inventories could absorb weather losses.
  2. A stronger dollar or weaker demand can reduce the global index.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Family

Food pressure hits lower-income households first because groceries take a larger budget share.

Money

Restaurants, retailers and governments may pass through or subsidize higher costs.

Safety

Severe and persistent food inflation can add social and political stress.

PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE

Resolve YES if the first FAO release of the December 2026 Food Price Index is at least 8.0% above the first released December 2025 value. Later revisions do not change the result.

Open source receipts
Food and Agriculture OrganizationMEASURED

FAO Food Price Index

Observation
The June 2026 index was 130.3 versus 124.3 in December 2025, a 4.8% increase toward the forecast's 8% threshold.
Exact value
130.3 index points; December 2025 baseline 124.3
Period
2026-06; comparison baseline 2025-12
Published
7/3/2026
Revision
First release
Model role
Probability input
Publication
Monthly
Last checked
Jul 30, 2026
Coverage
Internationally traded food commodity groups
Open-MeteoMODELED

Current temperature anomalies for selected cities

Observation
Unavailable at the publication cutoff and excluded because selected cities are not a crop-yield model.
Exact value
Excluded from model
Period
2026-07-30
Published
Unavailable
Revision
Unavailable
Model role
Context only
Publication
Near real time
Last checked
Jul 30, 2026
Coverage
Selected locations; not a crop-yield model
Open model card
Purpose
Estimate the probability of this exact public question before its deadline.
Calculation
Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation. Prior 35% plus declared evidence contributions.
Training period
No fitted training period is claimed.
Historical performance
Not available until forecasts resolve. WorldPredicta will not backfill a fake track record.
Calibration method
Pending a sufficient set of resolved forecasts; probabilities are grouped and scored publicly.
Known weakness
The present heat layer is city-based and is not yet a global crop-weather or yield model.
Current version
WP-FOOD-0.1
TRAVELCONFIDENCE · LOW

Will international tourist arrivals in 2026 exceed the 2019 level by at least 5% in UN Tourism's first full-year estimate?

56%ESTIMATED CHANCE

Air capacity and demand support continued recovery, while prices, conflict and regional travel restrictions remain meaningful brakes.

Published
Jul 30, 2026
Updated
Jul 30, 2026
Data through
Jul 30, 2026
Resolution date
Jun 30, 2027
Movement
Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.
Model
WP-MOVE-0.1
REPRODUCIBLE CALCULATION · WP-SCIENCE-0.2
PRIOR56%
+
NET EVIDENCE0 pts
=
RECOMPUTED56%
MATH MATCHES

0% exact input coverage · evidence quality 0/100 · expert weights are declared but not historically validated.

Open every input and weight →
MAIN DRIVERS
  1. Air connectivity and household travel demand can keep expanding.
  2. Visa changes and new routes can unlock additional cross-border trips.
  3. Large events and favorable exchange rates can shift regional flows.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
  1. Conflict, disease, disasters or expensive fuel could interrupt travel.
  2. High accommodation and airfare costs may restrain household demand.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Travel

Higher demand can mean more routes but also more crowded destinations and higher prices.

Work

Tourism-heavy economies may gain jobs and foreign-currency income.

Home

Residents in popular destinations can face rent, congestion and infrastructure pressure.

PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE

Resolve YES if UN Tourism's first complete 2026 estimate reports international tourist arrivals at 105% or more of the 2019 total; otherwise resolve NO.

Open source receipts
UN TourismESTIMATED

World Tourism Barometer

Observation
No complete 2026 global-arrivals estimate was publicly verified at the model cutoff; the last located Q1 2025 release is too stale for a probability update.
Exact value
Excluded from model
Period
2026 estimate unavailable at cutoff
Published
Unavailable
Revision
Unavailable
Model role
Resolution source
Publication
Periodic
Last checked
Jul 30, 2026
Coverage
International tourist arrivals
OpenSky and Airplanes.liveMEASURED

Observed aircraft state vectors used as movement context

Observation
Aircraft state vectors are excluded from the probability because they do not measure passengers, trip purpose or occupancy.
Exact value
Excluded from model
Period
2026-07-30
Published
Unavailable
Revision
Unavailable
Model role
Context only
Publication
Near real time
Last checked
Jul 30, 2026
Coverage
Sampled regional aircraft; not passenger counts
Open model card
Purpose
Estimate the probability of this exact public question before its deadline.
Calculation
Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation. Prior 56% plus declared evidence contributions.
Training period
No fitted training period is claimed.
Historical performance
Not available until forecasts resolve. WorldPredicta will not backfill a fake track record.
Calibration method
Pending a sufficient set of resolved forecasts; probabilities are grouped and scored publicly.
Known weakness
Aircraft positions do not measure passengers, purpose of travel or occupancy. UN Tourism estimates can be revised.
Current version
WP-MOVE-0.1