Only for the estimated likelihood that a resolvable event occurs.
METHOD 0.2
Five measurements. Five different meanings.
WorldPredicta never wants an index to masquerade as a probability or missing evidence to quietly become a zero.
For pressure, resilience, attention or theme alignment—not investment returns.
A readable transformation of multiple documented indicators.
Evidence quality, coverage and model maturity—not event likelihood.
A directly measured count with a source and timestamp.
Observe
Store the source, original timestamp, publication date, revisions and geographic coverage.
Explain
Show the drivers, conflicting evidence, missing variables and causal assumptions.
Forecast
Declare the prior, exact point-in-time inputs, log-odds weights, probability, horizon, deadline and model version.
Track
Keep every probability change and the evidence that moved it.
Score
Resolve using the precommitted rule, publish the Brier score and keep the miss.